I’m thinking of starting a new tech blog called Startup Reviews*, where I review every single new startup that I hearÂ about.
Without exception I’ll predict they will fail, and I’ll further predict they will fail within 2 years. Regardless of how good their product idea, what their business model is, or previous success. I’ll just blanket predict they will fail.
After a year or two I’ll start quietly bragging about my high percentage of correct predictions (likely to be around 80%), and position myself as an industry veteran** who can spot a failure a mile away.
* startupReviews.com is taken, but startrewie.ws is available if I was silly enough to actually waste time doing this
** I loved Ben Thompson’s pointÂ in a recent update*** when referring to tech journalists who change their views on a company after said company releases results:
He was totally wrong to be a bull! To suddenly become a bearÂ afterÂ terrible results isnâ€™t good analysis, itâ€™s reporting. Actually, itâ€™s worse than that: itâ€™s no better than what you might get from a newsbot (â€œIf results poor, say company is in trouble. If results good, say company is doing well.â€).
*** I’m a Stratechery Daily Update member – which I highly recommend if you like reading considered, insightful, strategic analysis of what’s happening in tech