Yes, I agree – I’m still not convinced that Microsoft can be a major player. However, I’m a little more optimistic now than previously.
In Ray’s April memo he mentions the mindset problem they’ve had with their Office cash cow.
http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/full_text_of_ray_ozzie_mesh_memo.php
Search for the section titled ‘Transformation of our company’ about 2/3 through. He acknowledges that they’ve had to change focus away from their long standing Office powerhouse. Whether they can or not of course remains to be seen…

My other comment is in regards to your thought about the world being distributed and chaotic. Distributed yes, but chaotic I would question, especially when talking about companies. Individuals yes, but companies I think are searching for an ordered, known quantity to manage their information. I actually think the Microsoft business model may suit many large companies. But the individual and consumer market is almost all but lost to other vendors already.

Cheers,
Craig

I think Microsoft does understand the issues. I’m just not sure whether they can really be a player. The problem is that the new world order is distributed and chaotic by nature – spread out and with no control, which is exactly what Microsoft is trying to hold onto. The innovation that might be possible is often held back because of the Microsoft business model. If anything is going to kill Microsoft that’ll be it.

The cash cow and it’s funny somebody from Microsoft should bring that up…